Let’s take a look at a great key indicator of how real, actual market data shows that the duplex market in particular had clearly turned the corner by the end of 2010.

 

“Probability of Selling” (POS). The probability of selling is arrived at by comparing how many duplexes were actually listed, sold and closed versus how many in total were originally listed for sale (whether they were sold, withdrawn, or expired.)

 

OVERVIEW

3rd Quarter - 2010

3rd Quarter - 2011

% Change Over Prior Year

SOLD Units

46

76

65.22%

WD & Exp

58

31

-46.55%

Probability of Selling

44.23%

71.03%

60.59%

 

Clearly conditions in the 3rd Quarter of 2011 year were far better than the 3rd Quarter of 2010.  But still, 29% of all duplexes put on the market fail to sell. The overall probably of selling is 71%.

 

The stats tables below indicates a marked improvement in this critical market statistic for every single area.  Some areas have even seen their POS almost double in just one year.

 

Taking a look at each area individually: 

 

Northwest Austin: In the 78750 & 78729 zip codes, the POS in this area improved slightly, the days on the market increased significantly, and the average sold price fell.  One can only assume that as the days on the market increased, sellers were willing to adjust their prices to meet the market expectations.  In the 78731 & 78759 zip codes, the POS significantly increased, days on market dropped dramatically, while sales prices decreased slightly.  Here again, the sales prices were adjusted to meet the market’s expectations. 

 

       

Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010

     
   

 

EXP/

Avg

Avg

Avg

Days On

 

   
   

Solds

WD

SQFT

List

Sold

Mkt

 

POS

NW Austin - 78750 & 78729

         

 

   

2011

3 Bed

1

2

2,446

$159,900

$152,500

169

 

   

2010

 

1

1

1,914

$212,900

$205,750

100

 

2011

54.55%

               

 

2010

40.00%

2011

2 Bed

5

3

2,171

$175,199

$170,000

79

 

   

2010

 

1

2

1,984

$224,900

$222,500

35

 

   

 

 

North Austin:  Zip codes 78727 and 78728, which are combined for the purpose of this newsletter, are strong areas but only have a minimal amount of duplex inventory.  It’s difficult to generalize about an area where there are so few possible transactions.  In the 78758 zip code of North Austin, there were a total of 18 transactions in the 3rd quarter of 2011.  This is the largest set of data.  The days on the market improved significantly and while the overall sales prices increased. 

 

       

Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010

     

 

   

 

EXP/

Avg

Avg

Avg

Days On

 

   

 

   

Solds

WD

SQFT

List

Sold

Mkt

 

POS

 

 

N Austin - 78727 & 78728

         

 

   

 

2011

3 Bed

0

1

0

0

0

0

 

   

 

2010

 

2

1

1,936

$177,777

$165,000

335

 

2011

0.00%

 

               

 

2010

33.33%

 

2011

2 Bed

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

   

 

2010

 

0

3

0

0

0

0

 

   

 

N Austin - 78758

           

 

     

2011

3 Bed

5

2

2,612

$209,560

$196,680

63

 

     

2010

 

4

1

2,138

$133,891

$126,975

58

 

2011

75.00%

 
               

 

2010

65.00%

 

2011

2 Bed

13

4

2,073

$173,057

$167,835

49

 

     

2010

 

9

6

1,865

$142,063

$134,856

73

 

     
                                     

 

 

Central / Down Town Area:  As shown by extremely low POS numbers for 2010 list prices were clearly unrealistic in this geographic area.  In 2011, sellers were willing to bend to meet the market expectations and more sales were made.

 

       

Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010

     
   

 

EXP/

Avg

Avg

Avg

Days On

 

   
   

Solds

WD

SQFT

List

Sold

Mkt

 

POS

 

Central Austin - 78752 & 78757

       

 

   

2011

3 Bed

3

1

2,071

$187,333

$182,300

86

 

   

2010

 

1

1

3,010

$476,000

$415,000

111

 

2011

75%

               

 

2010

33%

2011

2 Bed

6

2

1,623

$157,050

$148,157

32

 

   

2010

 

3

7

1,805

$172,933

$172,633

69

 

   

 

Central Austin - 78703, 78705, 78751 & 78756

     

 

   

2011

3 Bed

1

0

5,052

$750,000

$700,000

50

 

   

2010

 

0

2

0

0

0

0

 

2011

62%

               

 

2010

9%

2011

2 Bed

4

3

1,557

$334,750

$300,000

153

 

   

2010

 

1

8

2,167

$409,900

$409,900

60

 

   
                           

 

 

South Austin:  In this area we track two zip codes, 78704 and 78745. The POS for 78704 almost tripled from 22.22% in 2010 to 64.29% in 2011.  This is due to sellers seeing the failed sales of the previous year and proactive pricing in 2011.

 

       

Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010

     
   

 

EXP/

Avg

Avg

Avg

Days On

 

   
   

Solds

WD

SQFT

List

Sold

Mkt

 

POS

 

S Austin - 78704

           

 

   

2011

3 Bed

0

2

0

0

0

0

 

   

2010

 

0

1

0

0

0

0

 

2011

64.29%

               

 

2010

22.22%

2011

2 Bed

9

3

1,947

$270,833

$262,989

47

 

   

2010

 

2

6

1,766

$349,450

$318,000

112

 

   

S Austin - 78745

           

 

   

2011

3 Bed

4

2

2,205

$208,675

$201,900

20

 

   

2010

 

5

4

2,444

$201,780

$198,600

59

 

2011

70.59%

               

 

2010

58.33%

2011

2 Bed

8

3

1,947

$183,400

$180,288

21

 

   

2010

 

9

6

1,784

$165,372

$156,972

66

 

   
                         

 

 

Southwest Austin:  The only zip code included in this area is 78748. There is a lot of interest in this area from owner occupant buyers as well as investors, particularly the Tanglewood Forest Duplex Community.   Comparing the third quarter of 2010 to 2011, the POS nearly doubled and the price per sqft increased by $3.52.  So while the price per sqft increased… it is less than 5%.  With only 3 transactions in the 2 bedroom properties, this increase could have been due to improved conditions of the properties offered in 2011 over 2010.

 

       

Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010

     

 

   

 

EXP/

Avg

Avg

Avg

Days On

 

   

 

   

Solds

WD

SQFT

List

Sold

Mkt

 

POS

 

 

SW Austin - 78748

         

 

   

2011

3 Bed

4

1

2,254

$187,650

$186,200

38

 

   

2010

 

0

2

0

0

0

0

 

2011

83.33%

               

 

2010

42.86%

2011

2 Bed

6

1

1,979

$180,283

$178,983

57

 

   

2010

 

3

2

2,205

$198,233

$191,667

36

 

   
                                     

 

 

Conclusion?  During one of the toughest lending environments we’ve seen in decades investors were both willing and able to get back into the market here in Austin, Texas.  Prices are holding steady or are improving in most areas (see above), there’s plenty of financing available for qualified buyers and deals that make financial sense, and rents continue to rise.  Don’t miss the rental stats sheet below.

 

If you’ve been holding off either buying or selling your Austin investment property you owe it to yourself to take a fresh look at how the market is doing.  Remember, real estate is local…. Micro local.  While we have broken the market down to similar zip code areas, the most important “market” is on your block.  There are strategies that you can employ to help you get the highest price possible and we are committed to helping you do that.

 

 

   

Avg

Num.

Days On

   

Price

Leased

Market

         

NW Austin - 78750 & 78729

   

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,015

16

27

2010

 

$922

16

23

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$881

23

11

2010

 

$847

25

25

         

NW Austin - 78731 & 78759

   

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,377

19

21

2010

 

$1,177

21

39

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$1,156

28

14

2010

 

$1,088

25

19

         

N Austin - 78727 & 78728

   

2011

3 Bedrooms

$898

11

8

2010

 

$884

12

33

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$894

9

7

2010

 

$838

11

19

         

N Austin - 78758

     

2011

3 Bedrooms

$832

63

23

2010

 

$784

11

41

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$832

63

23

2010

 

$760

50

42

         

Central Austin - 78752 & 78757

   

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,164

11

28

2010

 

$1,097

11

17

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$946

20

16

2010

 

$888

19

39

         

Central Austin - 78703, 78705, 78751 & 78756

 

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,700

22

45

2010

 

$1,595

24

44

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$1,267

32

19

2010

 

$1,189

67

32

         

S Austin - 78704

     

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,428

6

17

2010

 

$1,440

5

20

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$1,261

26

11

2010

 

$1,079

38

16

         

S Austin - 78745

     

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,053

24

11

2010

 

$1,013

25

23

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$858

41

12

2010

 

$833

43

29

         

SW Austin - 78748

     

2011

3 Bedrooms

$1,006

13

9

2010

 

$1,010

13

26

         

2011

2 Bedrooms

$906

22

7

2010

 

$917

23

13

 

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