Let’s take a look at a great key indicator of how real, actual market data shows that the duplex market in particular had clearly turned the corner by the end of 2010.
“Probability of Selling” (POS). The probability of selling is arrived at by comparing how many duplexes were actually listed, sold and closed versus how many in total were originally listed for sale (whether they were sold, withdrawn, or expired.)
OVERVIEW |
3rd Quarter - 2010 |
3rd Quarter - 2011 |
% Change Over Prior Year |
SOLD Units |
46 |
76 |
65.22% |
WD & Exp |
58 |
31 |
-46.55% |
Probability of Selling |
44.23% |
71.03% |
60.59% |
Clearly conditions in the 3rd Quarter of 2011 year were far better than the 3rd Quarter of 2010. But still, 29% of all duplexes put on the market fail to sell. The overall probably of selling is 71%.
The stats tables below indicates a marked improvement in this critical market statistic for every single area. Some areas have even seen their POS almost double in just one year.
Taking a look at each area individually:
Northwest Austin: In the 78750 & 78729 zip codes, the POS in this area improved slightly, the days on the market increased significantly, and the average sold price fell. One can only assume that as the days on the market increased, sellers were willing to adjust their prices to meet the market expectations. In the 78731 & 78759 zip codes, the POS significantly increased, days on market dropped dramatically, while sales prices decreased slightly. Here again, the sales prices were adjusted to meet the market’s expectations.
Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010 |
||||||||||
|
EXP/ |
Avg |
Avg |
Avg |
Days On |
|
||||
Solds |
WD |
SQFT |
List |
Sold |
Mkt |
|
POS |
|||
NW Austin - 78750 & 78729 |
|
|||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
1 |
2 |
2,446 |
$159,900 |
$152,500 |
169 |
|
||
2010 |
|
1 |
1 |
1,914 |
$212,900 |
$205,750 |
100 |
|
2011 |
54.55% |
|
2010 |
40.00% |
||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
5 |
3 |
2,171 |
$175,199 |
$170,000 |
79 |
|
||
2010 |
|
1 |
2 |
1,984 |
$224,900 |
$222,500 |
35 |
|
North Austin: Zip codes 78727 and 78728, which are combined for the purpose of this newsletter, are strong areas but only have a minimal amount of duplex inventory. It’s difficult to generalize about an area where there are so few possible transactions. In the 78758 zip code of North Austin, there were a total of 18 transactions in the 3rd quarter of 2011. This is the largest set of data. The days on the market improved significantly and while the overall sales prices increased.
Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
EXP/ |
Avg |
Avg |
Avg |
Days On |
|
|
|||||||||||
Solds |
WD |
SQFT |
List |
Sold |
Mkt |
|
POS |
|
|
|||||||||
N Austin - 78727 & 78728 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|||||||||
2010 |
|
2 |
1 |
1,936 |
$177,777 |
$165,000 |
335 |
|
2011 |
0.00% |
|
|||||||
|
2010 |
33.33% |
|
|||||||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|||||||||
2010 |
|
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|||||||||
N Austin - 78758 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
5 |
2 |
2,612 |
$209,560 |
$196,680 |
63 |
|
||||||||||
2010 |
|
4 |
1 |
2,138 |
$133,891 |
$126,975 |
58 |
|
2011 |
75.00% |
||||||||
|
2010 |
65.00% |
||||||||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
13 |
4 |
2,073 |
$173,057 |
$167,835 |
49 |
|
||||||||||
2010 |
|
9 |
6 |
1,865 |
$142,063 |
$134,856 |
73 |
|
||||||||||
Central / Down Town Area: As shown by extremely low POS numbers for 2010 list prices were clearly unrealistic in this geographic area. In 2011, sellers were willing to bend to meet the market expectations and more sales were made.
Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010 |
|||||||||||||
|
EXP/ |
Avg |
Avg |
Avg |
Days On |
|
|||||||
Solds |
WD |
SQFT |
List |
Sold |
Mkt |
|
POS |
|
|||||
Central Austin - 78752 & 78757 |
|
||||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
3 |
1 |
2,071 |
$187,333 |
$182,300 |
86 |
|
|||||
2010 |
|
1 |
1 |
3,010 |
$476,000 |
$415,000 |
111 |
|
2011 |
75% |
|||
|
2010 |
33% |
|||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
6 |
2 |
1,623 |
$157,050 |
$148,157 |
32 |
|
|||||
2010 |
|
3 |
7 |
1,805 |
$172,933 |
$172,633 |
69 |
|
|||||
Central Austin - 78703, 78705, 78751 & 78756 |
|
||||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
1 |
0 |
5,052 |
$750,000 |
$700,000 |
50 |
|
|||||
2010 |
|
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2011 |
62% |
|||
|
2010 |
9% |
|||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
4 |
3 |
1,557 |
$334,750 |
$300,000 |
153 |
|
|||||
2010 |
|
1 |
8 |
2,167 |
$409,900 |
$409,900 |
60 |
|
|||||
South Austin: In this area we track two zip codes, 78704 and 78745. The POS for 78704 almost tripled from 22.22% in 2010 to 64.29% in 2011. This is due to sellers seeing the failed sales of the previous year and proactive pricing in 2011.
Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010 |
||||||||||||
|
EXP/ |
Avg |
Avg |
Avg |
Days On |
|
||||||
Solds |
WD |
SQFT |
List |
Sold |
Mkt |
|
POS |
|
||||
S Austin - 78704 |
|
|||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
||||
2010 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2011 |
64.29% |
||
|
2010 |
22.22% |
||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
9 |
3 |
1,947 |
$270,833 |
$262,989 |
47 |
|
||||
2010 |
|
2 |
6 |
1,766 |
$349,450 |
$318,000 |
112 |
|
||||
S Austin - 78745 |
|
|||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
4 |
2 |
2,205 |
$208,675 |
$201,900 |
20 |
|
||||
2010 |
|
5 |
4 |
2,444 |
$201,780 |
$198,600 |
59 |
|
2011 |
70.59% |
||
|
2010 |
58.33% |
||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
8 |
3 |
1,947 |
$183,400 |
$180,288 |
21 |
|
||||
2010 |
|
9 |
6 |
1,784 |
$165,372 |
$156,972 |
66 |
|
||||
Southwest Austin: The only zip code included in this area is 78748. There is a lot of interest in this area from owner occupant buyers as well as investors, particularly the Tanglewood Forest Duplex Community. Comparing the third quarter of 2010 to 2011, the POS nearly doubled and the price per sqft increased by $3.52. So while the price per sqft increased… it is less than 5%. With only 3 transactions in the 2 bedroom properties, this increase could have been due to improved conditions of the properties offered in 2011 over 2010.
Sold Data 3rd Qtr 2011 vs 2010 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
EXP/ |
Avg |
Avg |
Avg |
Days On |
|
|
|||||||||||
Solds |
WD |
SQFT |
List |
Sold |
Mkt |
|
POS |
|
|
|||||||||
SW Austin - 78748 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
2011 |
3 Bed |
4 |
1 |
2,254 |
$187,650 |
$186,200 |
38 |
|
||||||||||
2010 |
|
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2011 |
83.33% |
||||||||
|
2010 |
42.86% |
||||||||||||||||
2011 |
2 Bed |
6 |
1 |
1,979 |
$180,283 |
$178,983 |
57 |
|
||||||||||
2010 |
|
3 |
2 |
2,205 |
$198,233 |
$191,667 |
36 |
|
||||||||||
Conclusion? During one of the toughest lending environments we’ve seen in decades investors were both willing and able to get back into the market here in Austin, Texas. Prices are holding steady or are improving in most areas (see above), there’s plenty of financing available for qualified buyers and deals that make financial sense, and rents continue to rise. Don’t miss the rental stats sheet below.
If you’ve been holding off either buying or selling your Austin investment property you owe it to yourself to take a fresh look at how the market is doing. Remember, real estate is local…. Micro local. While we have broken the market down to similar zip code areas, the most important “market” is on your block. There are strategies that you can employ to help you get the highest price possible and we are committed to helping you do that.
Avg |
Num. |
Days On |
||
Price |
Leased |
Market |
||
NW Austin - 78750 & 78729 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,015 |
16 |
27 |
2010 |
|
$922 |
16 |
23 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$881 |
23 |
11 |
2010 |
|
$847 |
25 |
25 |
NW Austin - 78731 & 78759 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,377 |
19 |
21 |
2010 |
|
$1,177 |
21 |
39 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$1,156 |
28 |
14 |
2010 |
|
$1,088 |
25 |
19 |
N Austin - 78727 & 78728 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$898 |
11 |
8 |
2010 |
|
$884 |
12 |
33 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$894 |
9 |
7 |
2010 |
|
$838 |
11 |
19 |
N Austin - 78758 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$832 |
63 |
23 |
2010 |
|
$784 |
11 |
41 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$832 |
63 |
23 |
2010 |
|
$760 |
50 |
42 |
Central Austin - 78752 & 78757 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,164 |
11 |
28 |
2010 |
|
$1,097 |
11 |
17 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$946 |
20 |
16 |
2010 |
|
$888 |
19 |
39 |
Central Austin - 78703, 78705, 78751 & 78756 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,700 |
22 |
45 |
2010 |
|
$1,595 |
24 |
44 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$1,267 |
32 |
19 |
2010 |
|
$1,189 |
67 |
32 |
S Austin - 78704 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,428 |
6 |
17 |
2010 |
|
$1,440 |
5 |
20 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$1,261 |
26 |
11 |
2010 |
|
$1,079 |
38 |
16 |
S Austin - 78745 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,053 |
24 |
11 |
2010 |
|
$1,013 |
25 |
23 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$858 |
41 |
12 |
2010 |
|
$833 |
43 |
29 |
SW Austin - 78748 |
||||
2011 |
3 Bedrooms |
$1,006 |
13 |
9 |
2010 |
|
$1,010 |
13 |
26 |
2011 |
2 Bedrooms |
$906 |
22 |
7 |
2010 |
|
$917 |
23 |
13 |
Posted by Monte Davis on
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