Real Estate Blog

Well, folks, if you've had the TV on for the last couple of days, or just follow the stocks on your phone, this won't come as a surprise. Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center says the world is coming to an end. -- Sorry. Couldn't resist. -- Actually, he told the attendees at the Real Estate Council of Austin's annual economic forecast event last week that the U.S. is in serious trouble. Obviously, he's right. Does it mean "our world" is ending? Maybe, maybe not.

Using a ship at sea as his visual, Dotzour showed the U.S. firmly afloat in 1996, but taking on water and listing since 2003. He believes we'll capsize in 2012. Citing recent layoffs like those at Cisco Systems Inc., he said companies are battening down the hatches for the coming storm. Over the past two years, the labor participation rate has dropped from 66 percent to 64 percent.

Locally, we're better off. The Austin economy will, in his opinion, continue to generate jobs at a rate of roughly 1.1 percent in 2012. Direct quote -- "There's still hope of having a job in Texas because we're globally competitive." That's good news, and what we want to hear -- that Austin is a relatively safe harbor in what lies ahead for the nation.

Dotzour spared no love on the politicians or the government, comparing their reckless spending to a run-away drug habit. With major business and investment decisions likely to be on hold until the 2012 presidential election is over, he said there would be nothing but sluggish job growth nationally well into the first quarter of 2013.

It's highly encouraging that in the same time period last week, MarketWatch.com put Austin in the number one spot on their list of 10 Best Places to Live in the U.S.  That being said, the nation doesn't have a good outlook for coming months. Not happy numbers or happy thoughts, but just the sort of thing we, as investors, have to track even if the storm hasn't hit us.